World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2019

The 2019 WEF Global Risks (https://www.weforum.org/reports/) message is loud and clear: Disorder is the 21st century constant. No matter what way we input the data, the output remains constant: Disorder.

Forget about traditional risk management for that requires understood inputs. An uncertain world where emerging risks are driven by a rate of change described in a 2018 WEF report as 20,000 years of advancement in the 21st century alone, is one where the first you will know of a risk is when it manifests as an event.

To thrive in an uncertain world, growing in disorder, we need to adopt approaches where we optionalise all uncertainties (take a look at the section on Future Shocks for some cheery scenarios!). This requires more spread betting, probing and ensuring that no matter what, you will always have more upside than down in every decision taken. Rigour, structure, system and a “healthy fail-fast attitude” are the order of the day, not wooly, sub-optimal, intellectually fraudulent risk models.

To thrive today ahead of your less adaptive competitors you need new organizational capabilities. At a minimum you need structured, systems-driven ways to anticipate, understand and always be prepared for gross levels of uncertainty.

Finally, remember that uncertainty is the effect of the quality of information on decision making!

So, tune in to your best information assets i.e. your people. Be clever and use proven and accepted technological advances to crowdsource “what matters most” in terms of where best to prospect, exploit and where to speedily exit.

Fortune Favours the Prepared … so be prepared, and be careful out there!

*This article was first published on January 23, 2019